If you can postpone your vacation for a few more weeks, the price of gasoline could be a serious bargain.  A number of factors are converging and the impact could drop the price nearly a full dollar per gallon by Thanksgiving.

The cartel agrees to prop up the price but then someone decides they can get the jump on other members by selling more oil.

A few actors at play.  The lack of a trade deal with China comes to mind.  The standoff is causing a global economic slowdown.  Crude and gasoline reserves are high and some of the OPEC nations and allies may soon bolt from production limits.  This often happens.  The cartel agrees to prop up the price but then someone decides they can get the jump on other members by selling more oil.  It isn’t long before the agreement crumbles as everyone starts madly pumping.

There are no serious long term threats of shortages.  The world’s largest economy, ours, has discovered massive supplies.  Even as Mexico considers banning fracking, there won’t be any shake-up in current projections.

I’ve said in the past this is all very good in the short term for driving.  Long term, many producers in the Permian and Bakken stand back and cap wells.  People get laid off and it accelerates a potential recession.  You could lose your job and then gas becomes a luxury at any price.   The cascading effect means the depths of recession just before Christmas.  No job, no gas, no toys!

Mr. Trump is making a serious roll of the dice in negotiations with China.  It could cost him a second term, although.  A better deal would be great for America and his successors would reap the benefits.