I think the short answer would be it’s complicated.  Conventional wisdom would say Governor Brad Little wins by a wide margin over all challengers.  Republicans have a large margin when it comes to registration.  Many party regulars will simply vote for him because he’s the nominee.  Others who pay scant attention to politics will vote for a straight GOP ticket.

I also know people who tell me they like what they hear when Bundy speaks but are frightened by the media portrayal and his tactics.

By the way, just because someone says they don’t believe he can win doesn’t make them the enemy.  They aren’t attempting to discourage voters, they’re simply looking at most history.  Independent candidates rarely win, and those who do have a less controversial resume.  Even Jesse Ventura.  Yes, he was a pro wrestler and noisy.  He also hosted a popular weekday radio show in his home state of Minnesota.  His rhetoric was sharp, but he didn’t publicly confront the law, even when it was a bad law.  So, he had some unique advantages.

Bundy does share one thing with Ventura.  Tremendous name recognition.  Bundy is known worldwide.  More so than Brad Little, however.  Europeans don’t vote in Idaho elections (that we know of).

What Bundy does enjoy is a very dedicated core of supporters.  They haven’t budged.  The state’s current Republican candidates and officeholders don’t generally motivate people at the same emotional level.  Light turnout, bad weather, and maybe some earth-shaking events a week before Election Day could all have an impact.  A Bundy win wouldn’t be easy, it would be unexpected, but if chips fall another way…

Listen here as Tom Munds from the John Birch Society offers some similar thoughts.

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